Foreign exchange news -- international oil prices rose and fell, because the short-term good news failed to play a role

The rise in international oil prices since last week is mainly to price the Russian Ukrainian conflict into a new stage, because the market is worried that Russian crude oil will be sanctioned after the EU issued a ban on Russian coal (effective in mid August).

However, due to the opposition of Germany and others, the EU failed to further introduce the crude oil ban on Russia. In recent days, we can also see that the relevant reports have subsided a lot. In this case, it may be necessary to be vigilant against the risk of falling international oil prices this week.

The lackluster response of international oil prices to some good news in the short term also makes people worry about the sustainability of the rebound trend since last week. Libya closed its largest oil field due to domestic unrest, which is expected to reduce production by 500000 barrels per day. Libya also warned of further interruptions.

At the same time, Iran and the agreement, which had been expected to provide a lot of supplies to the international crude oil market, were facing a deadlock. A spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry accused the United States of adopting a "delaying policy" in the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement.

 

 

 

Some of the more definite negative news about international oil prices is worth noting:

1、 The supply reduction caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been priced. The selling of crude oil reserves by the United States and IEA covers the impact of the United States' ban on Russian energy imports in the next six months, and the European Coal ban will take effect in a few months.

2、 The decline in the global economic outlook weakened crude oil demand. The president of the world bank said yesterday that he would reduce the global GDP growth forecast this year from 4.1% to 3.2%. In fact, recently, OPEC, IEA and other institutions have lowered the crude oil demand forecast this year.

Of course, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still worthy of attention. No matter whether it will have a substantial impact on crude oil supply and demand, the intensification of the situation will definitely cause a "knee jerk" market reaction.

Technical analysis of crude oil price in the United States

The four hour chart shows that US crude oil prices rose and fell yesterday, falling below the upward trend line formed by the rebound at the beginning of last week. At present, we need to pay attention to whether the 105 front line can provide support to prevent the downward trend.

If the U.S. crude oil price effectively falls below 105, it will face the risk of falling close to 100. If it holds steady at 105 and rebounds upward, we will pay attention to whether it can return to yesterday's high and rise to above 110. If this happens, US crude oil may win the opportunity to rise near 115.